Forget mobile predictions for 2008, lets focus on the basics

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• 
  Anton Mannering
  

  January 11, 2008 @ 12:07 am

  I think you’re spot on here Paul.
  SO many people are talkin about how mobile will be “the next big thing” and investors asking “what are your plans for mobile services?”
  How can a new web service seriously consider developing for mobile considering the myriad browsers and operating systems. Cost of development is too high to make it worth the investment when you don’t even know if it’ll work. As you rightly point out if we can’t get things like sending photos right we’re probably a couple of years off the kind of internet phone usage people are talking about. Make it work well first…

  

• 
  Paul Walsh
  

  January 11, 2008 @ 12:18 am

  @Anton, whilst we agree on the stuff that the Industry can’t get right today, perhaps the introduction of Google’s Android project and the Apple iPhone will force many things from the Operators because let’s face it, the vast majority of hurdles are introduced by them.

  I hope the following will be enforced (well, encouraged):

  1) Better browsing capability on other devices
  2) Better designed Web sites to work on mobile devices as consumers come to expect it
  3) Flat tariffs as the Web on mobile as well as other data-driven applications are consumed. Think mobile videos from the likes of http://qik.com
  4) A greater expectation from consumers regarding the download of applications
  5) and more

  Unfortunately, products such as MMS which could work so well, doesn’t work properly - perhaps its because it doesn’t generate as much revenue as Operators expected. Who knows.

  Roll on Google and Apple - eh, notice that neither of them are from the Mobile Industry and both are able to deliver what the customer wants, in an extremely easy way.

  

• 
  Anton Mannering
  

  January 11, 2008 @ 12:47 am

  Absolutely agree Paul. But the big question I have is how long is it going to take? I don’t think this will be really in the main stream for a couple of years. Tariffs as you rightly say will be the major hurdle there.

  While I think it is essential to build your web service with mobile in mind the fact that there are so many platforms is “unhelpful” to use subtle understatement. Meebo for instance only developed for the iphone, basically for this exact reason, too much development for too little value. It’s difficult to justify that extra development cost.

  When there are some broadly accepted standards then this will be something EVERY web service will adapt to because it makes sense. To steal a phrase from Niall Larkin of RelevantM the phone is the social tool of first resort. It behooves any service to be on it. Roll on Android and Apple is right…

  

• 
  Paul Walsh
  

  January 11, 2008 @ 1:14 am

  @Anton - how long? Well, that’s the big question. I presented at the W3C’s first Mobile Web Initiative event in Europe. At around that time, I estimated 2 to 3 years before we began to see marked improvements.

  I really do believe the iPhone (and now Android) will do exactly what I debated with my peers. It will revolutionise not technology, but our perception of how data will be consumed. The iPhone proves that it’s possible to surf the Web on a phone and that you don’t have to be limited to WAP.

  There are accepted standards - check out the ones that Segala helped to Found http://w3.org/mobile - these help developers build Web sites that work better on mobile devices. It’s early days for these standards, but it’s another hurdle being removed (or at least lowered so it’s easier to jump over).

  I think iPhone-ready Web sites is a marked improvement but it’s not the answer as you say. It takes us half-way between WAP and Web. But developers will see the possibilities with the new standards soon.

  As for flat tariffs, I’m going to go out on a limb and say 2008

  http://www.w3.org/2005/11/mwi-ukevent.html

  

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